Costa Rica Heads to the Polls in 2026 Amid Fragmentation, Institutional Tensions and an Uncertain Outcome
As Costa Rica approaches its national elections in February 2026, foreign investors and international observers are closely following a political process marked by party fragmentation, institutional tension, and an unusually high level of voter indecision. We spoke with Mauricio París, Director of the Government Affairs practice at ECIJA Costa Rica, to understand how the electoral system works, what the latest polls reveal, and what scenarios lie ahead.
For international readers, how does Costa Rica’s electoral system work?
Costa Rica holds national elections every four years to elect both the President of the Republic—together with two Vice Presidents—and the 57 members of the Legislative Assembly. The upcoming general election will take place on Sunday, February 1, 2026.
The presidential election may involve two rounds. If no candidate secures at least 40% of the valid votes in the first round, a runoff election is held between the two leading tickets, scheduled, if necessary, for April 5, 2026. Legislative seats, however, are allocated exclusively in the first round, and those elected will serve for the 2026–2030 constitutional term.
Who oversees the process, and how robust is it institutionally?
The entire electoral process is administered by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (Tribunal Supremo de Elecciones, TSE), an independent constitutional body widely regarded as one of Costa Rica’s strongest institutions.
The TSE oversees everything, from voter registration and campaign rules to ballot counting and certification of results. Voting is secret, conducted in person at polling stations staffed by citizens, and preliminary results are usually released on election night. From an institutional standpoint, Costa Rica offers a high degree of predictability, transparency, and legal certainty.
What distinguishes the 2026 elections from previous cycles?
The defining features are fragmentation and uncertainty. There are 20 presidential candidates, which reflects a highly fragmented party system and a broad dispersion of political preferences.
Despite this crowded field, recent surveys by CIEP and IDESPO indicate that only four candidates have consolidated meaningful support. At the same time, the largest single group of voters remains undecided, representing between 43% and 45% of the electorate. That level of indecision is unusually high and keeps the race very open.
Who are the four leading presidential contenders?
Each represents a distinct political profile.
Laura Fernández, from the Pueblo Soberano Party, is a political scientist who served as Minister of the Presidency and Minister of National Planning under the current administration of President Rodrigo Chaves. Her candidacy clearly represents continuity with the current government, a position she has openly embraced.
Álvaro Ramos, the nominee of the Liberación Nacional Party (PLN), is an economist with extensive public-sector experience. He has served as Minister of Finance, Vice Minister of Revenue, Superintendent of Pensions, and, more recently as Executive President of the Costa Rican Social Security Fund.
Ariel Robles, from the Frente Amplio, is an educator and current legislator, generally identified with the left of the political spectrum.
Claudia Dobles, representing the Coalición Agenda Ciudadana, is an architect and former First Lady of Costa Rica. Her candidacy is positioned as a renewal option within the political space historically associated with the Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC).
What do the most recent polls tell us about the state of the race?
The latest surveys by CIEP and IDESPO show Laura Fernández clearly leading among decided voters, with a visible gap over her competitors. Álvaro Ramos consistently appears in second place, followed by Ariel Robles and Claudia Dobles at some distance.
However, the most important finding is not who leads, but that undecided voters remain the largest block of voters. This means current polling results should not be interpreted as conclusive. Historically, in Costa Rica, a significant percentage of voters decide only in the final days of the campaign.
Does Laura Fernández have a real chance of winning in the first round?
That is arguably the central question of the 2026 elections.
From my perspective, whether Fernández can win in the first round will depend largely on abstention levels. Costa Rica has experienced rising voter abstention in recent elections, and if this trend continues—particularly among opposition-leaning voters—Fernández could come very close to, or even surpass, the 40% threshold required to avoid a runoff.
All current polls point in that direction. None places her comfortably above 40%, but several show her within striking distance. A first-round victory is therefore not guaranteed, but it is clearly plausible, especially if the opposition remains fragmented until the end.
If there is a second round, who is most likely to make it—and who would have real chances of winning it?
This is where the race becomes more complex.
In my assessment, Álvaro Ramos has largely reached his electoral ceiling. His support appears stable but shows limited room for growth beyond his current base.
By contrast, Claudia Dobles has greater growth potential, particularly as a candidate who could consolidate opposition voters dissatisfied with the current administration. Her profile allows her to appeal to voters seeking an alternative without moving sharply toward ideological extremes.
That said, I still have two important reservations. First, whether Dobles can grow fast enough to force a second round in such a fragmented field. And second, if she does reach a runoff, whether she could assemble a sufficiently broad coalition to defeat Fernández, especially given Fernández’s alignment with a president who maintains relatively strong approval ratings.
How does the Legislative Assembly factor into all of this?
The legislative elections are just as important. According to IDESPO (Institute of Social Studies in Population), nearly 40% of voters are undecided regarding congressional races as well.
This matters greatly because the next Legislative Assembly will be responsible for appointing several high-ranking institutional officials, including the Attorney General, 14 of the 21 Supreme Court justices, the Comptroller General, the Ombudsman, and key sectoral superintendents. These appointments have long-term consequences for regulatory stability and institutional balance.
What broader political context should investors and expats be aware of?
Costa Rica is currently experiencing heightened institutional tensions among the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial branches, as well as with autonomous bodies such as the Comptroller General and the TSE. According to the most recent State of the Nation Report, this confrontation has reached its most critical point in decades.
Interestingly, despite this environment, President Rodrigo Chaves has maintained—and in some cases increased—his approval ratings, which is atypical in Costa Rican politics and directly affects the electoral dynamics of this cycle.
What is the main takeaway for foreign investors and international stakeholders?
The key takeaway is that the outcome remains genuinely open. The combination of a fragmented party system, a large undecided electorate, and rising abstention means that late campaign dynamics will be decisive.
For investors, it is essential to monitor not only the presidential race but also the composition of the next Congress, given its role in institutional appointments and regulatory oversight. Costa Rica remains a stable democracy with strong institutions, but the 2026 elections will be pivotal in defining how those institutions interact in the years ahead.